The real test for Maharashtra Chief Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena-BJP-Ajit Pawar coalition lies ahead in the upcoming Lok Sabha and Assembly polls.

Shinde's leadership received a boost as Speaker Rahul Narvekar ruled in favor of his faction, declaring it the legitimate and majority-supported "real Shiv Sena." The Election Commission of India had earlier recognized Shinde's party as the "Shiv Sena" and granted it the Bow and Arrow election symbol.

In response, Uddhav Thackeray, leader of the rival faction, expressed dismay and plans to challenge the Speaker's decision in the Supreme Court. However, despite the split, no MLA has been disqualified.

Speaker Narvekar's timely verdict secures Shinde's position as Chief Minister, signaling stability until the next assembly elections in November. BJP's Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis, the architect behind the Shiv Sena split, is relieved as the coalition faces no immediate threat. However, NCP's Deputy CM Ajit Pawar is disappointed, seeing his ambitions to secure the CM's post diminished.

By January 31, Speaker Narvekar must decide on the disqualification of Ajit Pawar and his MLAs, as mandated by the Supreme Court. The ECI is also expected to rule on the Pawar vs. Pawar battle for the party name and symbol.

Amidst legal battles, all parties acknowledge the inevitable need to face the electorate. Shinde, confident in his legitimacy, faces a challenge from Thackeray, who aims to leverage the sympathy factor as Bal Thackeray's rightful heir.

The focus shifts to the upcoming Lok Sabha and assembly elections in Maharashtra. Shinde must lead the alliance to secure a majority of the 48 Lok Sabha seats, crucial for his return as Chief Minister. The BJP, having benefited from splits in both Sena and NCP, may consider advancing the assembly polls to align with parliamentary elections.

These elections pose challenges for all sides, requiring Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray to demonstrate popular support. Ajit Pawar and Eknath Shinde must establish their strength independently and outshine each other.

Adding complexity is the contentious issue of Maratha reservation in government jobs and education. Activist Manoj Jarange-Patil plans a massive march to Mumbai on January 20, demanding Maratha benefits under the OBC category. Opposition from OBC outfits, fearing reduced opportunities, adds to the political heat.

The BJP looks to Shinde to navigate these challenges before the Lok Sabha polls. The Supreme Court's decision on the state's curative petition regarding the Maratha quota, expected on January 24, or the enactment of new legislation by the Shinde government, could shape the outcome.

If the decision comes today against CM Shinde, what will be the political outcome in Maharashtra?

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