Voters in the United States will head to the polls on November 5 to choose their next president. Initially, this election seemed like a rematch of 2020. However, the landscape changed dramatically in July when President Joe Biden ended his campaign and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris.
The critical question now is whether America will elect its first woman president or grant Donald Trump a second term.
As Election Day approaches, polling data will be closely monitored to assess how the campaign influences the race for the White House.
Current National Polls
Since entering the race at the end of July, Harris has maintained a slight lead over Trump in national polling averages. Initially, she experienced a surge in support, achieving a nearly four-point advantage by late August. However, polling numbers have remained relatively stable since early September, even after their only debate on September 10, which attracted nearly 70 million viewers.
While national polls provide a general sense of a candidate's popularity, they may not accurately predict the election outcome. The U.S. employs an electoral college system, where each state has a designated number of votes based on its population size. A total of 538 electoral votes are available, and a candidate needs 270 to win.
Although there are 50 states, many consistently vote for the same party, so only a few battleground or swing states determine the election's outcome.
Battleground State Polls
Currently, polls in seven key battleground states show a very tight race, with no candidate holding a significant lead. In Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, the lead has shifted several times since August, with Trump recently enjoying a slight advantage. In Nevada, however, Harris has maintained a marginal lead.
In Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Harris has been in the lead since early August, sometimes by two to three points. Yet, the recent tightening of polls shows Trump now holding a narrow lead in Pennsylvania.
These three states were traditionally Democratic strongholds but shifted to Trump in 2016. Biden reclaimed them in 2020, and if Harris can secure these states, she may well be on track to win the election.
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