JAPAN: In response to growing tensions in the Indo-Pacific region, Japan is enhancing its defence capabilities by developing a new anti-ship missile. This initiative aims to counter China's expanding influence and strengthen Japan's control over contested waters.

According to reports, Kawasaki Heavy Industries (KHI) plans to conduct the first test launch of the missile in fiscal year 2027. The missile, known as the "New Anti-Ship Missile for the Defence of Remote Islands," is part of Japan's broader strategy to develop standoff missiles, particularly in light of ongoing disputes over the Senkaku Islands.

The missile will be powered by KHI's advanced KJ300 small fuel-efficient turbofan engine and is designed to be launched from beyond the range of enemy threats. The Japanese Defence Ministry has earmarked USD 223 million for the missile's research and development from fiscal years 2023 to 2027.

With an estimated range of 2,500 kilometres, this new missile could potentially strike targets deep within China from western Japan. This development aligns with Japan's Defence Buildup Program, which emphasizes improving standoff defence capabilities with longer-range, low radar cross-section, and mobile missiles. Additionally, the program includes the creation of a precision-guided missile designed for surface-to-ship and surface-to-surface operations.

The successful deployment of this missile is expected to enhance Japan's ability to neutralize threats from a distance, fortifying its defence over remote islands and extending its influence in the region, including potential reach into mainland China.

The Nansei/Ryukyu Islands are strategically important for both China and Japan, serving as vital logistics, defence, and power projection points. For China, these islands are crucial for navigating the First Island Chain, which is essential for naval operations and could facilitate a blockade of Taiwan. Conversely, Japan perceives these islands as a defensive barrier against Chinese expansion, aiming to create an "island wall" equipped with advanced missile systems.

China has frequently conducted naval and air exercises around these islands, simulating attacks with its carrier battlegroups. In response, Japan's 2022 National Security Strategy emphasizes the need for long-range missile deployment and the enhancement of counterstrike capabilities against both China and North Korea.

However, Japan faces significant tactical, operational, and strategic challenges in developing long-range counterstrike capabilities. Japan's commitment to renouncing nuclear weapons and offensive military capacities complicates its ability to implement deterrence through punishment, compelling it to adopt a deterrence-by-denial approach.

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