SOMALIA: An explosion occurred on Friday evening at Liddo Beach, a popular spot in Somalia's capital, Mogadishu. Former Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire confirmed the incident on his X account, stating that the explosion resulted in deaths and injuries among beachgoers.

While details on the number of casualties and the responsible party remain unclear, Khaire expressed his condolences to the victims' families and friends. "I send my deepest condolences to the families, relatives, and friends of those who were martyred in these explosions," he said. He also condemned the timing of the attack, noting that it happened when the beach was at its busiest, showcasing the terrorists' hostility towards the Somali people.

Videos circulating on social media showed a chaotic scene with bodies on the beach and people fleeing in panic. Somali National Television reported on X that security forces had neutralized the attackers and that medical teams were attending to the injured.

The Al Qaeda-linked group Al Shabaab, known for similar attacks, once controlled large parts of Somalia. Although government counteroffensives have reduced their territory since 2022, the group still poses a significant threat, capable of striking governmental, commercial, and military targets.

Al-Shabaab: A Persistent Threat to Somalia
Al-Shabaab, an extremist Islamist group with ties to Al-Qaeda, has been waging a violent campaign against the Somali federal government since late 2006. Their goal is to incorporate Somalia into a broader international jihad. The group's influence has fluctuated over the years. After their tactical withdrawal from Mogadishu in 2011, their activities in the capital have been characterized by suicide bombings, improvised explosive device (IED) attacks, and targeted assassinations of political figures.

In Mogadishu and other Somali cities, Al-Shabaab's actions are countered by the African Union-backed AMISOM peacekeeping force and the Somali Federal Security Forces. However, the effectiveness of Somalia’s military is compromised by its composition of various clan militias, whose loyalty to the national government is often tenuous.

Despite these efforts, Al-Shabaab still controls significant portions of the Somali countryside and retains the ability to execute large-scale attacks. Their immediate objective is to disrupt the Somali government's attempts to consolidate power, while their long-term goal is to expel Western influences from Somalia and establish a state governed by an extreme interpretation of sharia law.

The recent explosion in Mogadishu underscores the group's capacity for devastation. Although details about the source of the explosives are still emerging, the scale and coordination of the attack suggest significant organizational strength.

Government in Crisis
This attack comes at a particularly challenging time for the Somali government. Just a week prior, both the defense minister and the military chief resigned, reportedly due to internal rivalries and frustration with the lack of support from President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo’s administration.

The government is in the process of implementing a new Security Pact, established in May 2017 at an international conference in London. The plan included a gradual withdrawal of AMISOM troops starting in 2018, but the recent violence may delay these efforts.

The attack also undermines recent assertions that Mogadishu is becoming safer. The high civilian casualty toll challenges the perception that only prominent political or security figures are at risk, potentially deterring members of the Somali diaspora and refugees from returning.

If Al-Shabaab is confirmed to be behind this attack, their silence could be due to the high number of civilian casualties. It is speculated that the intended target was the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, but the truck bomb detonated prematurely after being stopped by security officials, triggering a catastrophic fireball. This incident, which caused widespread destruction, is likely to provoke significant backlash against Al-Shabaab, damaging their public image and support.

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