SAO PAULO – Brazil’s former president, Jair Bolsonaro, along with 36 others, has been indicted by federal police for allegedly attempting to stage a coup to maintain power following his defeat in the 2022 election. Bolsonaro, already barred from running in the 2026 presidential race due to another case, could now face prison time, further weakening his political standing.

The findings from the investigation were submitted to Brazil’s Supreme Court, which will forward them to Prosecutor-General Paulo Gonet. He will decide whether to bring formal charges against Bolsonaro or dismiss the case. Local media reports indicate that Gonet is under mounting pressure from legal peers to proceed with charges related to the ex-president.

Political analysts believe that if Bolsonaro faces trial at the Supreme Court, it could spark a battle among his allies and opponents for influence over his voter base. Carlos Melo, a political science professor at Sao Paulo’s Insper University, noted that Bolsonaro no longer leads Brazil’s right-wing movement. After recent mayoral election losses, the former president’s political grip has weakened. “There are politicians lining up to court Bolsonaro voters,” said Melo.

Bolsonaro, who is reportedly reviewing the 700-page indictment with his lawyer, denied the coup allegations, calling them a product of "creativity." He has repeatedly rejected claims that he attempted to overturn his narrow 2022 election loss to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

The Supreme Court recently authorized the release of the names of all 37 people indicted in connection to the alleged coup attempt, aiming to prevent misinformation from spreading. Among those indicted are high-ranking figures from Bolsonaro’s circle, including Gen. Walter Braga Netto, his 2022 running mate, and former military leaders, such as Gen. Paulo Sérgio Nogueira de Oliveira and Gen. Augusto Heleno.

Bolsonaro faces multiple investigations, including accusations of smuggling diamond jewelry into Brazil without declaring it, and allegedly ordering his staff to falsify vaccination records. He has denied involvement in both cases. Another investigation focuses on his role in undermining Brazil’s electoral system, which led to his being barred from running for office until 2030.

Despite these legal challenges, Bolsonaro has stated his intention to run in the 2026 election, and his supporters continue to be buoyed by Donald Trump’s recent U.S. election win, despite Trump’s own legal troubles.

Political analyst Creomar de Souza commented that while the indictment is damaging to Bolsonaro, it could still fuel his narrative of political persecution, potentially benefiting his chances in the future. “We can’t rule out that the tension from indictments like this might well favor Bolsonaro to some extent,” de Souza said.

A separate investigation into the January 2023 riots, in which Bolsonaro supporters stormed the capital in an attempt to keep him in power, has led to discussions in Congress about a potential amnesty bill. Bolsonaro’s allies are reportedly working to extend the bill to include the former president, though analysts warn that pushing such a bill could face significant political hurdles, particularly given the ongoing scrutiny of the judiciary.

Recent events have also seen arrests related to a plot to assassinate President Lula and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, as well as a bomb attack in Brasília, further intensifying the political unrest in Brazil.

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