As the U.S. presidential race heats up between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, many wonder how the outcome might affect Africa. In a time of increasing global tensions, there are hopes that a president of African heritage could bring positive changes to the continent.
Last year, Vice President Kamala Harris visited Cape Coast Castle in Ghana, a site with a painful history as a former slave holding prison. “The horror of what happened here must always be remembered,” Harris said during her visit. She reflected on her personal connection to Africa, sharing memories of visiting her grandfather in Lusaka, Zambia. “This continent has special significance for me personally as the first Black vice president of the United States,” she noted.
Despite Harris's strong ties to her African roots, observers question whether her potential presidency would lead to significant changes in U.S. policy toward Africa. Many believe that no matter who occupies the Oval Office, Africa is often sidelined in U.S. foreign policy.
X.N. Iraki, an economics professor at the University of Nairobi, pointed out that while Harris's heritage may resonate with African-American voters, history shows that the U.S. presidency may not bring substantial changes for African nations. He recalled that President Obama, despite his Kenyan background, did not make significant strides for Africa.
Iraki emphasized that both candidates prioritize American interests, suggesting that Trump's previous administration’s lack of engagement with Africa will likely continue if he wins. “His America First agenda suggests that Africa would not be a priority in his foreign policy,” he said.
Support for Harris among Black registered voters has increased since she became the Democratic candidate. A recent poll indicated that 84% of Black voters would support her, although this is lower than the 92% who backed Biden in 2020.
If Trump were to win, experts like Gustavo de Carvalho from the South African Institute of International Affairs predict he would maintain a laissez-faire attitude toward Africa. His focus on isolationism could deepen existing gaps in U.S.-Africa relations, especially in light of China's growing influence on the continent.
Under Biden's administration, the U.S. has sought to strengthen ties with Africa through initiatives like the $600 billion Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment, aimed at competing with China's Belt and Road Initiative. This includes significant investments in infrastructure projects like the Lobito Corridor railway in Angola.
Harris is expected to follow Biden's strategy if elected, focusing on countering the influence of China and Russia through investments in infrastructure, agriculture, health, and security. However, this approach may risk reducing long-term partnerships with African nations, turning them into mere tools in geopolitical maneuvers.
Amid these dynamics, Harris's 2023 visit to Ghana, Tanzania, and Zambia aimed to promote open societies and women's empowerment, but there are concerns that her administration could face criticism for its stance on LGBTQ rights in Africa.
Steven Gruzd, a program head at the South African Institute of International Affairs, believes that a second Trump term would likely result in neglect of Africa, while a Harris presidency would continue Biden's policies without placing African issues at the forefront of her agenda.
W. Gyude Moore, a non-resident fellow at the Center for Global Development, pointed out that African leaders will always seek good relations with whoever is in power in the U.S. He suggests that while Harris might offer more engagement than Trump, the focus on Africa remains limited.
Carlos Lopes, a professor at the University of Cape Town, argues that many Africans feel Washington’s approach is driven more by geostrategic interests than genuine partnership. He warned that neither candidate is likely to bring transformative change to the U.S.-Africa relationship.
Overall, whether Trump or Harris wins, Africa's role in U.S. foreign policy is likely to remain on the periphery, with minimal impact expected on the continent’s development and political aspirations.
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