NEW YORK – Americans are set to determine their next president with voting concluding on Tuesday. If Donald Trump, the Republican former president, wins against Kamala Harris, the current Democratic vice president, Asian economies may face a significant shift in trade dynamics due to Trump's pledge to raise tariffs.
Recent polls indicate a tight contest between Trump and Harris. The result will hinge on the Electoral College system, which allocates electoral votes to states based on their congressional representation. Key states to watch in this election are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada, often referred to as "swing" states.
The wait for the US election results on Tuesday night, November 5, 2024, may extend longer than expected, especially if neither Democratic nominee Kamala Harris nor Republican candidate Donald Trump secures a decisive lead. If margins remain close in key swing states, it could take days or even weeks for a final result to emerge.
Swing states like Pennsylvania, where polling suggests a razor-thin margin of just 0.4% for Trump, will be pivotal. In such close races, recounts and legal battles are likely, potentially leading to delays in finalizing results. Historically, a losing candidate often concedes if the outcome is clear. However, given Trump’s refusal to concede after the 2020 election, there is a strong possibility of legal challenges if he falls short again. Harris, too, would be expected to contest a tightly fought election. Both campaigns have assembled legal teams to address any disputes.
The US president is determined by the electoral college—a body of 538 electors distributed among the states according to population—not by the popular vote. Thus, winning the popular vote does not guarantee a victory if it doesn't translate to a majority in the electoral college. In 2016, for instance, Hillary Clinton won nearly 3 million more votes than Trump but lost the electoral college vote.
This year, seven crucial swing states hold 93 electoral college votes. These states have no established party dominance, meaning their votes are essential for either candidate to claim victory.
A further complication arises from the lack of a centralized election authority in the US. Each state independently manages its election procedures, including absentee ballot deadlines, creating different timelines for closing polls and counting votes across the country. If absentee ballots yet to be counted significantly impact the margin in any state, it could delay results. In close elections, either party may request recounts, extending the timeline further.
In 2020, the media announced the outcome four days after the November 3 election, although counting was ongoing in some states. A significant delay also occurred in the 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore, which wasn’t resolved until December 12 due to a dispute over Florida's votes.
If results in swing states are clear, we could expect a winner as early as midnight in New York on Wednesday, November 6 (10:30 a.m. IST). Early indications from media analysis may start around 9 p.m. (ET) after polls close in Pennsylvania. However, legal challenges in closely contested states are likely to delay official results.
By December 11, governors must submit 'Certificates of Ascertainment'—the official electoral college vote tally—to the National Archivist. The electoral college will then meet in each state capital on December 17 to cast their votes, finalizing the process.
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